An upcoming “Super” El Niño is set to shatter records, threatening a multiregion humanitarian crisis and offering a preview of the warmer, more chaotic world we face. This is a critical window for philanthropy to act proactively — saving lives and protecting hard-earned progress on renewables, food security, public health, and more.

This year’s El Niño weather pattern will test communities around the world in unprecedented ways — adding pressure to systems already reeling from economic, geopolitical, and climate shocks. 

The consequences will be far-reaching, with cascading impacts on nearly every issue area philanthropy supports, such as food, energy, ecosystems, livelihoods, and public health. All this occurs against a backdrop of sharp cuts to humanitarian and development aid in recent years. At best, this “Super” El Niño will cause widespread hardship; at worst, it could trigger a multi-region humanitarian crisis marked by lost livelihoods, hunger and famine, displacement and migration.

The decisions made in advance of and in response to this shock will determine the scope of the suffering, and shape human and ecosystem health for years to come. In this critical moment, philanthropy must step up to provide life-saving resources in the immediate term, help accelerate energy and food system transitions already underway, and bolster adaptation and resilience for the realities of life in a warmer and less stable world. The time to act is now.

What is El Niño and why is this one different?

El Niño is a natural and recurring change in weather patterns that begins with warming waters in the Pacific Ocean and affects rainfall and temperatures worldwide, bringing drought to some regions and flooding to others. It typically builds in the spring and summer, intensifies in the fall, and peaks between October and January. 

The magnitude of El Niño varies and is measured by the change in Pacific Ocean temperatures from the average. This year, temperatures in the Pacific are already above the 2° C warming threshold of a “Super” El Niño. The high end of forecasts predict a peak between 3.5° C and 4° C in December — one full degree higher than the 2015 record. Experts agree on one thing: it will cause more intense weather impacts worldwide. 

There is a high degree of confidence in these forecasts. As of September 21, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 75% chance that the peak will exceed every El Niño on record since 1950. The impacts of El Niño last far beyond peak water temperatures in the Pacific and will hit countries and systems that are already stretched to their limits. 

What are the likely impacts of this Super El Niño?

El Niño affects temperatures and rainfall patterns around the world, raising the risk of extreme weather events in many regions. Potential impacts from this Super El Niño include increased risks for flooding, extreme heat, and drought, with the potential to displace millions of people and push tens of millions into food insecurity.

The following are just a few of the anticipated impacts on issue areas that philanthropy supports, drawn from research and synthesis developed in part using AI tools (primarily NINOBOT), and verified through human review.

Agriculture and food security 

Nearly 50 million people could face extreme hunger as a result of droughts, floods, and storms, with the highest risk in the Sahel, Southern Africa, South and Southeast Asia, Central America, and the Caribbean. 

Across these regions, some agricultural and pastureland areas face more than a 50% chance of drought in the coming weeks and months. For many major producing regions, drought impacts from El Niño will coincide with a crop planting season already strained by fertilizer shortages driven by disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, which has driven a sharp surge in energy and food prices. 

Farmer incomes across high-risk regions will be severely stressed by drought, irrigation stress, fertilizer prices, and crop losses. More trade disruptions are likely, too, as critical thoroughfares like the Panama Canal are forced to restrict shipping traffic and floods hit roads, warehouses, and factories, further driving up food prices and exacerbating food insecurity, especially for countries dependent on imported food.

Energy

Many countries are already struggling to meet basic energy needs for air conditioning, transportation, refrigeration, light, healthcare, and other essential services because of the Hormuz crisis. Increasing energy shortages could force some countries to lean heavily on existing coal, gas, and diesel as emergency fuel sources. This could reverse years of momentum toward renewable energy transitions, even as renewables have become more affordable and resistant to the volatility and geopolitical risks that frequently disrupt fossil fuel markets.

In Southeast Asia, the Mekong Delta is already at dangerously low levels due to a weak and short rainy season, threatening extreme energy shortages in a highly interconnected region dependent on hydropower. Existing shortages could quickly become major blackouts as river levels drop — paralyzing industrial zones and leaving people without electricity and air conditioning during dangerous heatwaves.

Public health

Drought can quickly turn into regional public health and climate crises, as fires drive air pollution, biodiversity loss, and land degradation.

Indonesia, for example, is already dealing with an especially damaging fire season, with smoke disrupting schools, flights, and outdoor work in addition to exposing millions across Southeast Asia to hazardous air pollution. Fires in Indonesia during the last Super El Niño in 2015 created CO₂ emissions that briefly exceeded daily emissions of the entire European Union.

Displacement and migration

In many instances, El Niño-related shocks will force people to leave their homes. In 2023, floods during Somalia’s rainy season displaced over 1.2 million people. New research suggests that Somalia faces far greater flood risk in 2026 — but this time with lower funding levels and greater operational constraints.

Meanwhile, agriculture in Kenya and Uganda is particularly dependent on fertilizer imported via the Strait of Hormuz; shortages leave farmers less able to offset a poor season with additional outputs. These climate and agriculture disruptions can quickly cascade into food shortages and cash-flow failure, forcing outward migration and years-long displacement for millions.

What philanthropic funders can do

There is a high degree of confidence in the forecasts of this El Niño’s timing and scale. Unlike many other major global disruptions that emerge with no advanced warning, philanthropy has an opportunity to respond proactively before the worst impacts hit.

Funders need to strategize their rapid response now — and engage with peer funders and grantees — to identify their best role and be ready to move money quickly and effectively. Here are four recommendations on how philanthropy can take action, based on recent discussions across the climate funder community. 

• Develop speed, agility, and flexible funding to help grantees pivot amid volatility: During a complex, unfolding crisis, those closest to the ground know what communities need. Funders need to trust the field with fast, flexible dollars, accepting that business-as-usual processes are simply too slow to meet the moment.
• Prioritize community adaptation and resilience: Philanthropy can support efforts to bolster communities’ capacity to understand, prepare for, and manage impacts, including pre-positioning medical services and anticipatory action, protecting life and infrastructure, and safeguarding progress on health, food security, and economic development. 
• Align on narratives to prevent long-term fossil fuel rebound: The crisis will likely cause a spike in fossil energy use to meet human needs in the short term. The climate community needs to think ahead about how to debunk false claims that renewables cannot meet energy needs during extreme weather events, and how to advance evidence-based visions for a future of abundant, secure, and affordable clean energy.
• Form broader coalitions between climate funders, humanitarian aid, and the private sector: As a field, philanthropy cannot afford to focus too closely on siloed, individual priority areas during a crisis that is, by nature, interconnected and systemic. Philanthropy must also leverage its relationships with private sector actors, who often control the bulk of resources and infrastructure in affected regions, and can act more swiftly.