Minerals for the Energy Transition

The challenge

The energy transition runs on minerals. An estimated 6.5 billion tons of cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, and other critical minerals will be needed by 2050 to manufacture and deploy clean energy technologies needed to keep the transition on track. Rising demand for many of these minerals far outstrips current production levels. The International Energy Agency projects a 30% copper shortfall by 2035 under current policies, which would severely diminish global renewable energy capacity. Bridging that gap is a key challenge at both the local and global levels.

Mine sites around the world operate with limited regulatory oversight and frequently face production disruptions as a result of the social and environmental harms they generate. For example, a mismanaged community consultation or a toxic spill into surrounding waterways can mobilize protests and trigger mine closures, with cascading effects on mineral availability and supply chain resilience. These disruptions also perpetuate real harm on mining-adjacent communities, many of them Indigenous, in the name of the energy transition, and they are increasingly organizing in response. Without meaningful community engagement and real progress on environmental stewardship, mineral supply will remain unstable, and so will the energy transition.

At the same time, minerals are at the center of intensifying geopolitical competition over access and control. Many countries are pushing back against a system in which wealthy nations profit from mineral supply chains, while mineral-rich countries remain locked in extraction-to-export models that limit their own domestic development. This dynamic drives fragile and fragmented supply chains that are harder to govern responsibly, and increases the risk of shortfalls. Without philanthropic intervention, poor management of mineral supply will perpetuate harm to communities and the environment, deepen geopolitical tensions, and erode hard-earned climate progress over time. The long-term durability of the energy transition depends on mineral development that delivers real benefits to mineral-rich communities and countries.

The opportunity

The opportunity for philanthropy to engage with the future of mineral supply — and by extension, the energy transition — has never been greater. Over 80 countries are either developing national mineral strategies or implementing newly finalized ones. Projected government funding for mineral development and related priorities from 2026-2031 is  $65–80 billion — and that’s a conservative estimate. 

By working alongside organizations that steer capital and policy, philanthropy can do two things at once: build the resilient mineral supply the energy transition requires, and ensure mineral-rich communities capture lasting economic and development benefits from extraction. We are not starting from scratch — this work builds on the foundations laid by civil society advocates who have worked for decades to hold extractive industries accountable.

Reshaping how minerals are extracted is not enough. We also need to enhance mineral recovery and recycling. A resilient supply depends on effectively reusing minerals already embedded in products, such as lithium-ion batteries. More recycled minerals in circulation means lower demand for new minerals: reduced long-term dependence on mining, reduced pressure on new extraction, and less risk of mining expansion into the world’s last standing carbon sinks, such as the Amazon, Congo Basin, and Indonesia’s forests. Following the landmark EU Battery Law, momentum for mineral recycling policy is growing worldwide. With the help of immediate philanthropic action, recycling could meet an estimated 60–80% of projected global mineral demand by 2050.

Finally, we can build a more aligned and cooperative minerals field and advance global recognition of minerals as a public good essential to the energy transition. Together, these actions on minerals will advance a responsible, equitable, and timely energy transition.